2024 NCAA Men’s Championships: Day 1 Scoring Analysis

2024 NCAA Men’s Championships: Day 1 Scoring Analysis

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2024 Men’s NCAA Swimming and Diving Championships

Day 1 is in the books, and it was a doozy.

With only two events – the 200 medley and 800 free relays – we have already seen NCAA, meet, American, and U.S. Open records fall by the wayside. In both events, the top-seeded Arizona State Sun Devils were upset. And while relay swims, in and of themselves, aren’t huge indicators of what to expect in the meet, they can be indicative of bigger trends

Texas finished Day 1 with 14 more points than projected, thanks to their 800 free relay which placed 3rd from the second-to-last heat. Missouri, Stanford, and Florida State also outperformed by double digits. Auburn, Arizona, and Arizona State were under by double digits.

Arizona State still leads the projections by 101 points (before diving), while Florida still enjoys a 139-point margin ahead of Cal and NC State. But if tonight’s performances are any indication of what to expect in the coming days, this could be a much closer – and more exciting – team race than we had anticipated.

Day 1 Performers Relative to Seed

Team Score Relative to Seed
Texas 14
Missouri 12
Stanford 10
Florida State 10
Cal 8
Michigan 6
Indiana 4
Texas A&M 4
Florida 2
Virginia Tech 2
SMU 2
North Carolina 2
NC State -2
Tennessee -2
Louisville -2
Alabama -2
Ohio State -4
Georgia -8
Auburn -10
Arizona State -12
Arizona -12

Over/Under 200 Medley Relay

Team Psych Finals Difference vs Seed
Cal 32 30 -2
Florida 34 40 6
Arizona State 40 34 -6
Indiana 26 26 0
NC State 28 32 4
Texas 24 18 -6
Stanford 8 24 16
Georgia 10 6 -4
Auburn 22 22 0
Tennessee 30 28 -2
Virginia Tech 18 14 -4
Louisville 0 0 0
Michigan 6 8 2
Alabama 0 0 0
Missouri 0 12 12
Florida State 0 10 10
Ohio State 0 0 0
SMU 0 0 0
Texas A&M 0 4 4
Arizona 14 2 -12
North Carolina 0 0 0

Over/Under 800 Free Relay

Team Psych Finals Difference vs Seed
Cal 30 40 10
Florida 34 30 -4
Arizona State 40 34 -6
Indiana 22 26 4
NC State 24 18 -6
Texas 12 32 20
Stanford 28 22 -6
Georgia 32 28 -4
Auburn 18 8 -10
Tennessee 0 0 0
Virginia Tech 8 14 6
Louisville 26 24 -2
Michigan 6 10 4
Alabama 14 12 -2
Missouri 0 0 0
Florida State 0 0 0
Ohio State 10 6 -4
SMU 2 4 2
Texas A&M 0 0 0
Arizona 0 0 0
North Carolina 0 2 2

Team Projections After Day 1 (without diving)

Team Day 1 Actual Day 2 Psych Day 3 Psych Day 4 Psych Projected Score Vs Psych
Arizona State 68 140 139 181 528 -12
Florida 70 81 150 126 427 2
Cal 70 58 71 89 288 8
NC State 50 60 76 87 273 -2
Tennessee 28 64 50 72 214 -2
Indiana 52 4 61 78 195 4
Georgia 34 25 56 49 164 -8
Virginia Tech 28 42 41 51 162 2
Stanford 46 33 47 34 160 10
Texas 50 30 36 24 140 14
Notre Dame 0 40 35 58 133 -8
Michigan 18 21 34 36 109 6
Auburn 30 25 23 29 107 -10
Alabama 12 9 23 22 66 -2
Virginia 0 46 10 4 60 0
Texas A&M 4 9 26 15 54 4
Wisconsin 0 51 0 0 51 0
Louisville 24 0 12 12 48 -2
Ohio State 6 0 9 28 43 -4
Penn 0 0 11 17 28 -12
USC 0 0 0 28 28 0
Florida State 10 14 0 0 24 10
Missouri 12 0 5 5 22 12
SMU 4 0 6 9 19 2
BYU 0 4 9 4 17 0
Minnesota 0 11 0 6 17 0
Arizona 2 8 0 0 10 -12
Georgia Tech 0 0 0 7 7 0
Brown 0 0 0 6 6 0
Kentucky 0 0 0 6 6 0
LSU 0 0 0 2 2 -2
North Carolina 2 0 0 0 2 2

 

 

 



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